Within hours of each other, both Microsoft and Google announced agreements with Twitter which will allow them to provide more timely, micro-blog based information in their respective indexes. The magnitude of this is best exemplified by how the major search engines struggled to be current in light of Michael Jackson’s death.
When TMZ.Com broke the story on their website, it had proliferated throughout Twitter through a series of retweets that accelerated to the point of bringing down the service. When I saw my first retweet on Twitter, I immediately began to Google the topic looking for the time delay in a Google News result. This took over 2 hours.
To Google’s credit, during that two hours there was a lot of debate on behalf of major news sources as to whether to confirm the story with the only source being the “edgy” TMZ.Com. Still, it is a known fact that in light of Twitter, Google, Bing, and other search engines lack timeliness in the indexing of information. That is why the literal simultaneous announcements regarding the Microsoft – Twitter agreement and the Google – Twitter agreement are significant. Still, as all of the news focuses on the headline, the world needs to take a look back to headlines of the past to understand why Microsoft might have a leg up in the future of search as access to Twitter was commoditized today.
If you examine a list of Microsoft acquisitions, you will see one of the major keys to the future of their success search with the October 2, 2007 purchase of JellyFish.Com. JellyFish.Com was Wisconsin based startup that was the CPA (cost per action) site of its kind. The site created a win-win model between advertisers and consumers by only charging advertisers based on actions and providing consumers with cash back for purchases. JellyFish.Com was eventually shut down and incorporated into Microsoft’s search real estate. They have actually ventured into some advertising in their recent Bing campaigns.
This is the point in this post where I have to disclose that I worked in management at Microsoft for 10 years. Yet, this post, which actually ventures into speculation, is simply a product of me thinking like a Microsoft versus any insider information. Moving on . . . .
Prior to today’s announcements, I was in the middle of writing this post taking an angle that the timeliness of Twitter would drive more users to the micro blogging site and its API partners for relevant news and reduce the role of search engines to more static information searches including that of products and services. Even though today’s announcements provide the search engines a much needed boost of instantaneous information, it is still unclear as to whether their tapping of Twitter’s API’s will customize results for search engine users based on the “following” lists and taxonomy (hashtags) preferences that they establish in other applications such as TweetDeck. So, I will go with the assumption that both Microsoft and Google have a long way to go in making their indexing of Twitter data relevant to users and that the real competition will continue in the space of more static informational search. This is where Microsoft’s JellyFish.Com acquisition becomes significant.
Consumers will do funny things if they think there is benefit. They’ll buy locally on Tax Free Day when they could pay no taxes 365 days a year by purchasing online and probably get a more competitive price. They’ll also base purchase decisions on whether or not they can get “flyer miles”. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve used more than my fare share of flyer miles but THE LAST THING you want is a “receivable” with an Airline and that is exactly what a flyer mile is. As a marketer to you learn to not fight consumer behavior rather you cater to it and that is what Microsoft is doing. And, in a down economy where consumers are looking for benefit, it just might very well be able to sway consumers to use Bing for commercial searches. This will eventually bring advertisers big and small along with them. Still, Google’s dominance will likely require them to make some mistakes or have a strategic set back to provide Microsoft some sort of window. I doubt Google will release the search engine equivalent of Windows Vista; yet, a major legal set back isn’t out of the question.
One area where Google is creating a situation for its advertisers is venturing into the social media space on the same real estate its advertisers pay for placement. Their recent revelation of SideWiki creates exactly that situation. Big advertisers will spread their bets if given the opportunity and Microsoft’s CPA program that provides consumers with cash back might very well give them that option. Of course, Google is carefully evaluating similar models but has a major legacy pay per click system which will add complication to any strategy shift.
Though behind on search, Microsoft is no stranger to data. One thing often overlooked about the underdog Microsoft is that they have years of R&D invested in processing of data in terms of multi-dimensional data warehousing and data mining. Back in 1995 Microsoft began to bolster its minds and technology arsenal in this space including hiring the late data industry legend, Jim Gray. The sad thing today is that search engines are still single dimensional. If you search WINE in Google you get a limited list of websites, paid advertisements, and local business listings. Why a multi-dimensional data set starting with regions, varietals, ages, and other suggestive search based characteristics aren’t provided to a user with drill down tools is a mystery to me. I am sure this is coming but one has to concede that Microsoft has been researching and making acquisitions in this space for over a decade. Whether Microsoft will go there is yet to be seen and my thinking here is mere speculation.
In my opinion, Microsoft does have a leg up; yet, they will have to get over bad habits if they want to succeed. The biggest bad habit they have to “kick” is marketing above the heads of their consumers. Though Crispin Porter is the bomb of advertising and doing amazing things with the brand in light of Apple, I have yet to meet a consumer who truly understands what the cash back message on the Bing advertising really means. They are going to have to get down to consumers level if they want to convert on the advantage that they have.
The future of search is healthy and I am excited to learn of today’s Twitter announcements. I’m also excited to watch search engines be forced to change based on the disruption of small startups versus using their large cash positions to dictate how consumers should get their online information. What do you think? What will search engines look like 5 years from now and will Twitter change the face of them or simply refine their definition?
